Guides
Part of Election reporting guide: authorities, stages, records
How to read an election results page without misreading the count
Read the election results page issuer, timestamp and status label before any margin, then follow the count through canvass, audit and certification.
What to take away
- Confirm the page belongs to the office that ran the election, not an aggregator copying it on a delay.
- Record the update time and the status label.
- Precincts reporting measures transmission from physical sites, not the share of ballots counted.
- Treat every percentage as percent of a named denominator, counted at a stated time.
- Follow the result through canvass and certification before calling it final.
A results page compresses thousands of local processes into one table. The status label sequence, in order, is unofficial, canvassed, certified, amended, recount. Read the page notes and data definitions before copying a total. The stage vocabulary is set out in the elections and civic processes guide.
The six checks, in order
Work them in sequence. Skipping the first two is how a stale mirror gets quoted as an official total.
- Confirm the page belongs to the election office that ran the contest, not an aggregator copying it on a delay.
- Read the status label and note which stage it names.
- Record the update time printed on the page.
- Check whether the progress figure counts precincts or counted ballots.
- Name the denominator and the cutoff behind every percentage.
- Look for correction notes, then follow the result through canvass and certification.
Six checks in order
- Identify the publisher
- Read the status label
- Inspect the reporting units
- Capture the table
- Find outstanding work
- Follow later stages
What the status label actually means
The U.S. Election Assistance Commission's results, canvass and certification resource sets out the sequence. Election-night numbers are unofficial. The canvass reconciles valid ballots against election records. Authorized officials then certify final results under state and local procedures.
From election night to certified
- Election nightUnofficial numbers released
- CanvassValid ballots reconciled against records
- CertificationAuthorized officials certify final results
- Recount or court orderCertified record can change
A certified number is not the end of the line. A recount or a court order can change the certified record under the law that applies in that state. Check the state election office for the current rule rather than assuming one.
The 2008 Minnesota Senate race is one example. Election-night returns put Norm Coleman narrowly ahead. After the recount and the state canvass, officials certified Al Franken the winner, and a later court contest changed the certified record again.
Worked example: the same ballots, two turnout rates
Take a county with 100,000 residents of voting age. Of these, 8,000 are not eligible to vote. There were 60,000 ballots cast.
Same ballots, two turnout rates
Voting-age population
- Denominator
- 100,000
- Ballots cast
- 60,000
- Turnout
- 60.0%
Voting-eligible population
- Denominator
- 92,000
- Ballots cast
- 60,000
- Turnout
- 65.2%
| Denominator | Figure | Turnout |
|---|---|---|
| Voting-age population | 100,000 | 60.0% |
| Voting-eligible population | 92,000 | 65.2% |
Same ballots. The rate moves five points on the choice of denominator alone. MIT's Election Lab explainer on measuring voter turnout documents how much that choice shifts published rates.
Ask the same question of every percentage on a results page: percent of what, counted when. That measure-first habit is what major economic indicators compared teaches for data releases, and the same discipline applies to reading a science press release.
Reading a number that moves
When a new release adds a ballot group, note which group and how many ballots it added. Military, overseas, provisional and cured ballots often arrive on their own schedules.
When a total falls, look for a posted correction note before calling it an error. Offices publish corrected files, and the note explains the change.
Never subtract one day's total from a rough outstanding estimate and present the difference as exact. Report the estimate as the office issued it.
Where certification becomes public record
Certification is a vote taken in a public meeting. The packet for that meeting shows the numbers being adopted and the officials adopting them. How to read a public meeting packet covers those documents.
Common questions
Does 100 percent precincts reporting mean counting is complete?
Not necessarily. Mail, provisional, cured, military and overseas ballots can still be outstanding, and each follows its own schedule. Check the office's own note on what remains.
Why do percentages change between releases?
New valid ballots, posted corrections, or a changed denominator all move totals and shares. Compare the release versions side by side to see which one happened.
Is a projected winner official?
No. A projection belongs to the organization that made it. Attribute it there, and keep the official count separate until certification.
What number belongs in a headline?
The latest official total, with its timestamp and its status label. If the number is not necessary to the story, the status label alone is the safer line.
